Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 18.021869 21.754985 25.890344 30.786510 36.399542 42.607414 49.965580
2025-06-01 12.254714 17.013795 22.865248 30.479434 40.006781 51.410916 65.958583
2025-06-08 8.720990 13.600634 20.128838 29.269195 41.477172 56.945419 77.714378
2025-06-15 7.065283 12.137645 19.406030 30.186004 45.318481 65.320081 93.193908
2025-06-22 5.404981 10.244333 17.669131 29.310874 46.436690 69.971545 103.891507
2025-06-29 4.589214 9.457885 17.366283 30.339957 50.149159 78.211079 119.714865
2025-07-06 3.432591 7.820780 15.442587 28.610020 49.570982 80.273643 126.974815
2025-07-13 2.981617 7.346616 15.326872 29.656552 53.174595 88.462443 143.220169
2025-07-20 2.576849 6.864670 15.107366 30.467110 56.412402 96.225719 159.153836
2025-07-27 2.281305 6.537662 15.106427 31.616586 60.228143 105.006731 176.926092
2025-08-03 1.989585 6.147541 14.919312 32.392563 63.443486 112.978748 193.774992
2025-08-10 1.633158 5.510972 14.143467 31.995941 64.617461 117.762453 205.913726
2025-08-17 1.254537 4.736281 13.023475 30.961341 64.849819 121.444423 217.177957
2025-08-24 0.996581 4.199307 12.324650 30.674322 66.412861 127.446137 232.512841
2025-08-31 0.741211 3.557347 11.246673 29.458879 66.141084 130.328229 242.930271
2025-09-07 0.637622 3.362742 11.199415 30.380491 69.904675 140.202418 265.082729
2025-09-14 0.481339 2.901342 10.376199 29.500828 70.120261 143.932275 277.221180
2025-09-21 0.418817 2.773066 10.409195 30.535242 74.144888 154.509368 301.181432
2025-09-28 0.291391 2.282513 9.312207 28.796322 72.447705 154.773164 307.664624
2025-10-05 0.254388 2.195361 9.379992 29.848300 76.535134 165.677387 332.760165
2025-10-12 0.217648 2.085788 9.354800 30.663051 80.170611 175.895064 357.000281
2025-10-19 0.191768 2.021070 9.460626 31.818435 84.598502 187.757170 384.491112
2025-10-26 0.163518 1.920310 9.424322 32.598376 88.257586 198.314046 410.005271